Abstract:

The scenario technique is widely used to cope with uncertainties and plan for alternate future situations. The extensive research led to a scattered literature landscape. To organize the field quantitatively, we conduct bibliometric performance analyses and a bibliographic coupling analysis. Results show an increased interest in scenario research since 2009 and clear distinctions between strategic and operational as well as methodological and applied research. Future research can be expected to further enhance the method towards robust decision making and to combine it with methods searching for most likely scenarios, such as prediction markets, crowdsourcing, and superforecasting. Additionally, cognitive and behavioral aspects of using the scenario technique might draw further attention. The scenario technique is expected to be applied across all industries and will probably play an increasing role in currently underrepresented business functions such as marketing and innovation.

Reference:

Tiberius, V., Siglow, C., & Sendra-García, J. (2020). Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities, Journal of Business Research, 121, 235-242, doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.08.037.